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2021 Calgary Real Estate Projections
Dated: January 31 2021
Views: 677
Courtesy of Kamil Lalji, Associate Broker at CIR REALTY
What You Can Expect in the Rental and Housing Market
As the pandemic progresses, we’re seeing changes in the housing market within the City of Calgary. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation last recorded vacancy rates in October 2019, which were reported at 3.7% are now up to 6.6% as reported two days ago. However, due to the impacts of COVID-19, the negative long-term outlook towards a carbon based economy and the boom of purpose built apartment development we project a further and continued rise of rental vacancy rates. As a result of the increasing vacancy rates, we are projecting a decrease in the overall value of the housing market over the long-term.
According to the City of Calgary Monthly Statistics, there has been a high demand in housing that has supported the market in order to enter 2021 in balanced conditions. Although high housing demands in the second half of 2020 allowed for economic improvements in the market, annual sales activity still sits below long-term averages. So, what’s driving the (short-term) increase in demand in spite of the economic downturn in Calgary?
Most of the motivation we’ve seen on the ground for demand has to do with situational change during the pandemic. At the beginning of the pandemic we saw lots of relationship breakdowns. Then we saw an exodus from downtown and tight living spaces. Now we’re seeing people making moves due to the increase in family sizes (The Coronials), changes in financial position, more upgrading of situations, inter-provincial migration, and finally death. The low interest rates are also giving people a further reason to act on these existing motivations.
So what does this mean for Calgary real estate in 2021?
The average benchmark price for all categories of properties with the exception of condos will likely be going up in the short-term. Once the frenzy of moves are made to sort out situational motivations prices will likely drop. This decline in price over the long-term presents more affordable housing for individuals looking to invest and re-locate. With excess supply from increasing vacancy rates and reduced prices, individuals are now able to broaden their housing options and search further into the market.
Although the long-term outlook doesn’t look bright for now there are a few wildcards to consider. First, and most importantly, inflation. We know that with all the money that’s being printed it’s coming, we just don’t know when. Real estate is one of the best hedges against inflation and so long as you don’t own your home outright, you’ll make a leveraged gain when it hits. Second, the substitution effect. Calgary is still a world class city and a fantastic place to live. When you compare it to other similar type cities in Canada and even in the world, we’re surprisingly affordable. Over the even further long-term the city will grow as vacancy is inevitably filled, spurring all sorts of economic gains leading to growth in the values of real estate.
Angelique Garcia
Welcome to my world of real estate! My name is Angelique Garcia and I am a passionate and dedicated real estate professional. For me, real estate is not just a job, it's a way of life. I am....
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Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS® System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.
Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS® System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.
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Information should be deemed reliable but not guaranteed, all representations are approximate, and individual verification is recommended. Copyright ©2026 All rights reserved.
The trademarks REALTOR®, REALTORS® and the REALTOR® logo are controlled by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify real estate professionals who are members of CREA. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by CREA and identify the quality of
Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS® System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™. The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.